Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed that since the beginning of this year, commodity prices have been driven by various factors such as currency, supply and demand misalignment, and some structural changes. Temporary and short-term factors have led to rapid commodity prices. The leading factor in the rise.
Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that the impact of the new crown epidemic is an important factor leading to the increase in commodity prices this round. In terms of demand, because the expansionary policies adopted by Europe, the United States and other countries are very strong, the demand of countries after the impact of the crisis is in the process of rapid recovery. However, the epidemic has restricted many related social activities, and various activities related to production and transportation transactions are in a state of suppression. In this case, the gap between supply and demand appears to be relatively large. Coupled with speculative factors, eventually led to a more obvious increase in commodity prices.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, believes that this round of commodity price increases cannot have a “super cycle” because the global economy was in a downward cycle before the epidemic. Due to the epidemic, supply cannot keep up and inventories. Decline, so this round of shock is the restocking cycle, and the restocking cycle is a short cycle. After the epidemic, the downward trend of the global economy has not changed, and the possibility of a substantial increase in demand from China and the United States in the future is extremely low. With the recovery of the supply side, including resource-rich countries, both sides of the supply and demand will not support the continuous rise of commodity prices in the long run.
